Estofex Forecast

Estofex Forecast for tomorrow includes a risk of an isolated strong tornado event over the SouthEast!

“From noon to the evening hours, the triple point somewhere between SE-Ireland and C-UK becomes of interest as dry slot draws near from the SW. Interaction of both features could result in a few vigorous updrafts. This scenario is also backed by the favorable placement of a 50 m/s (plus) 500 hPa jet streak. LL flow won’t be as intense as further south, but high SRH-1 and low LCLs point to an isolated tornado threat… next to severe wind gusts and marginal hail.
Further south, the dry slot probably lowers thunderstorm probabilities, but an isolated event can’t be ruled out over NW France and most of C/S UK as BL moisture remains adequate with mixed-layer mixing ratios in excess of 5 g/kg. Spotty pockets of EL temperatures between -20 and -30 °C also support the idea of ongoing convection potential. Despite lack of confidence in a forced line of storms, any shower/thunderstorm event could support downward momentum transport of very intense winds (e.g. 850 hPa winds aoa 45 m/s with SRH-1 well in excess of 400 m^2/s^2 !). Once again it will be hard to distinguish between the background gradient flow and convectively induced wind gusts, but convection could certainly add a localized damaging wind gust risk at the surface.
Despite the ongoing wrap-up process of the thermal wave, this depression certainly features an higher tornado risk compared to the past events. Extreme LL shear and some modest onshore LLCAPE back that idea and an isolated strong tornado event can’t be ruled out especially over SE-Ireland, SW-S and C UK.”