An insteresting situation for Thursday night into Friday with a low developing southwest of Ireland which will track to our south possibly taking aim for Wales and England but the track is very uncertain at present. NOAA and GFS have it pretty close to Ireland with heavy rain.
However Arpege and UKMO have track much further south meaning we escape the worst. Also in the situations winds are strongest on south edge so we should be ok to miss the winds either way. ECMWF 12z charts are rolling out at present.
Latest ECMWF also keeps it south of us. Let’s hope GFS is wrong and others are right and it tracks south of us, though often in these scenarios the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the models so south coast could see some impact. One to watch.